The Tories may lose every single seat in London with three seats that they could cling onto “too close to call,” according to exit poll analysis.
It showed the Conservatives being wiped out in Inner London and hanging onto only a few seats in Outer London.
However, early indications suggested that in some parts of Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK while eating into the Tory vote, and to a less extent Labour’s, was not doing quite as well as the exit poll had pointed to when it was announced shortly after 10pm.
If that were to be the case, it could mean the outcome for the Tories in the capital may not be as dire as three seats or less.
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The exit poll experts compile a large scale survey of voters across the country from which likely outcomes in individual constituencies can be calculated.
The seat-by-seat predictions are more likely to be open to error than the national picture as they are not able to take fully into account of local factors, such as Jeremy Corbyn standing in Islington North as an independent.
This seat was judged to be “too close to call”. But the forecasts paint a very grim picture for the Tories in London as they point to a string of “likely Labour gains” of between 97 per cent to 99 per cent likelihood.
In Inner London they face losing their three seats held in 2019.
Greg Hands, the London minister, would lose in Chelsea and Fulham, and the Tories would also be defeated in Cities of London and Westminster, a constituency that includes Buckingham Palace, Parliament and the City, as well as Kensington and Bayswater, according to the exit poll.
In West London, Harrow East would also go Labour, as would Boris Johnson’s former constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
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In North London, the Conservatives would lose Chipping Barnet and Hendon to Labour, and Finchley and Golders Green to the Liberal Democrats.
Sir Ed Davey’s party would also gain Wimbledon, Sutton and Cheam, and Carshalton and Wallington.
In East London, Romford would turn from Blue to Red, as would Bexleyheath and Crayford, Chingford and Woodford Green where former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith would be defeated, and Bromley and Biggin Hill.
Police minister Chris Philp would lose in Croydon South.
Hornchurch and Upminster appeared to be the most likely Tory hold, with a 44 per cent likelihood, compared to 36 per cent that it goes Labour.
On the other side of the capital, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner seemed on an absolute knife edge, with a 51 per cent likelihood of it staying Tory, and 49 per cent that it would be a Labour gain.
Orpington is 54 per cent likely to go Labour and 46 per cent to remain in Tory hands.
Lord Jo Johnson, Conservative peer and brother of former PM Boris Johnson, said the Tories were in danger of being “drummed out” of London and that it would be a “big mistake” if the party stops trying to appeal to a range of voters.
He told Sky News: “These elections do raise a really important issue as to whether it’s a sensible thing for the Conservatives to try to be ‘Reform-lite’ and expect that to be a winning political strategy, it doesn’t look to be from what we’re seeing today.”
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