Russia's military is likely to continue taking over 1,000 casualties per day in Ukraine for the duration of August according to the latest intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defence.
The update, published on Saturday, estimated Russia suffered an average of 1,140 casualties per day in July, down from a high of 1,262 in May. It cited continued Russian offensive operations stretching from Kharkiv in northern Ukraine, to Robotyne in the south, as the reason it expects Moscow's daily casualty rate to exceed 1,000 for the remainder of this month.
Over the past few months, Russian forces have launched major offensives in Ukraine's eastern Donbass regionDonbasl as from the north, where they have been attempting to advance on Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.
The Russian military has made slow progress, seizing a number of villages and advancing towards the city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, but has taken heavy casualties during the fighting.
In its most recent update, published on X formerly Twitter, the U.K. ministry said: "Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day throughout August 2024 as Russia continues offensive operations on a wide front from Kharkiv in the north to Robotyne in the south of Ukraine."
Referring to recent fighting the update said: "The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has fallen over the past two months from a conflict high of over 1,262 per day in May to 1,140 in July 2024.
"Despite this reduction, the last three months have been the costliest for Russian forces since February 2022, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
The British intelligence report attributed the slight decrease in Russian casualties between May and July to a reduction of offensive operations around Kharkiv.
It said: "The reduction in daily average is likely indicative of Russian forces consolidating positions on the Kharkiv axis.
"Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the front line, an effective Ukrainian defense and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia's ability to exploit any tactical successes into wider operational gains."
Newsweek contacted the Russian and Ukrainian Defense Ministries for contact on Saturday by email.
On Saturday the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed they had launched a significant attack on a Russian air base at Morozovsk, in Rostov Oblast, overnight during which warehouses storing ammunition were hit.
Footage purportedly showing the incident was shared on social media featuring a raging inferno and a number of what appeared to be secondary explosions, suggesting one or more arms dumps had been hit.
On June 8 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed the Russian offensive towards Kharkiv had failed after meeting with Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's army chief.
He said: "A very significant result is that the Russian army failed. The direction is strengthened. And it will be strengthened more."
Russia annexed the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in September 2022, though it does not have full control over any of them.
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