Vladimir Putin has been left ‘severely embarrassed’ at the loss of territory to Ukraine.
It has been a week since Ukrainian troops poured into the border region of Kursk from several directions, overwhelming multiple checkpoints and field fortifications along the 152-mile frontier.
Forces have managed to advance up to 20 miles inside Russia in what has become the deepest incursion since the start of the full-scale war.
Catching the Kremlin unprepared, Ukraine is eyeing up a second border region – Belgorod.
Unlike previous raids conducted by Russian volunteers fighting alongside Ukraine, the operation into Kursk reportedly involves units from battle-hardened Ukrainian army brigades.
How is Russia responding to the incursion?
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Some 11,000 people in Belgorod, which lies next to Kursk, have been moved due to the ‘enemy action’.
Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said people from Krasnaya Yaruga district were being evacuated.
The region remains under a missile alert, and people are being urged to shelter in their basements.
Again and again, the Kremlin’s mouthpieces have repeatedly insisted that Russia has the situation under control, but judging from Ukraine’s advances – verified by geo-located footage – this is not the case.
Speaking at a meeting with top security and defence officials, Putin said the attack reflects Ukraine’s attempt to gain a better negotiating position in possible future talks to end the war.
He argued that Ukraine may have hoped to cause public unrest in Russia with the incursion, adding that it has failed to achieve that goal, and claimed that the number of volunteers to join the Russian military has increased because of the assault.
The president said: ‘It is obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilize the situation in the border zone to try to destabilise the domestic political situation in our country.’
RUSI’s military sciences director, Matthew Savill, said Russia seem to have been caught by surprise, or at least not prepared.
He added: ‘Initial force of border guards and FSB seems to have been overwhelmed, and early public messages that the attack had been ‘repulsed’ have been deleted.
‘A state of emergency has been announced in several oblasts, and reportedly 75,000 Russian civilians evacuated.
‘Over the weekend, it seems like more Russian forces, including some pulled from inside Ukraine, have started arriving and may have now halted further Ukrainian advances, but it’s not been a particularly impressive response yet.’
What is Ukraine hoping to achieve?
It is difficult to establish Ukraine’s objectives, and President Zelensky has not been open about the operation.
Sustaining a force of any size in Russia, and defending against any counterattacks, will be hard, given the limited reserves available to Ukraine.
It does not seem that the raid has also resulted in the Russians slowing advances around the Donbas, where the situations around Chasiv Yar and towards Povrovsk remain difficult.
Savill stressed that this is a risky operation if Ukraine’s aim is more than a ‘raid’ to disorientate Russia.
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He said: ‘The Ukrainians have shown themselves to be resourceful. They appear to have some air defences with them and have successfully used drones to attack Russian helicopters in the air.
‘Moreover, the Russians have been severely embarrassed and the loss of territory
and evacuation of civilians will play poorly back in Russia as evidence they ‘cannot
defend themselves.’
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