Historian and presidential election forecaster Allan Lichtman believes Ukraine's ongoing offensive into Russian territory could be a win for Kamala Harris, and improve her chances of securing the White House come November.

In a video posted to his YouTube channel on Wednesday, Lichtman described Ukraine's surprise Kursk incursion as "one of the most brilliant maneuvers in modern military history," and said that this could turn the "foreign/military success key" in Harris's favor.

Foreign/military success—defined by Lichtman as the incumbent administration achieving "a major success in foreign or military affairs"—is one of the "keys" that comprise his presidential election formula.

Developed in 1981, the model relies on 13 true/false questions. When eight or more of these "keys" are true, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election.

US Vice President Kamala Harris with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit near Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 15, 2024. Presidential historian Allan Lichtman said that Ukraine's success in the ongoing Kursk operation could be... US Vice President Kamala Harris with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit near Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 15, 2024. Presidential historian Allan Lichtman said that Ukraine's success in the ongoing Kursk operation could be a win for Harris' campaign. Alessandro Della Valle/AFP via Getty Images

Lichtman previously described foreign/military success as one of the "shakiest" keys for Harris, given the fact that the war had so far been fought almost exclusively on Ukrainian soil.

He noted that the overall "success" of Ukraine's operation cannot yet be gauged, but said that the Kursk raid had the potential to be a "game-changing kind of event."

Lichtman, who has been dubbed America's electoral "Nostradamus" given his track record of successfully predicting presidential races, said that Ukraine turning the tide in the conflict would reflect well on the vice president, despite the fact that the U.S. has no boots on the ground in the region.

Lichtman said this could still be classed as a success for Biden and, by extension, Harris, given the fact that America "is the critical element supporting the Ukrainian effort."

"Without the U.S. [Kursk] never would have happened. Without Biden putting together the coalition of the West, Putin would have conquered Ukraine very, very quickly."

However, Lichtman's model has garnered scrutiny from political scientists and other election forecasters for its reliance on subjective metrics such as military "success," or a candidate's "charisma."

Allan Lichtman discusses his 13 keys to a successful election campaign on April 13, 2012 in his office at American University in Washington, DC. Lichtman's predictive model has come under scrutiny for its reliance on... Allan Lichtman discusses his 13 keys to a successful election campaign on April 13, 2012 in his office at American University in Washington, DC. Lichtman's predictive model has come under scrutiny for its reliance on subjective metrics such as "charisma" or "military success." Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images

Indeed, whether Ukraine's Kursk raid will be declared a "success," and how much of a success, remains open to question.

Since the raid was launched on August 6, Ukrainian forces have continued to advance further into Russian territory, capturing hundreds of troops and taking control of as many as 74 settlements according to Kyiv.

Callum Fraser, a research fellow in Russian and Eurasian Security, told Newsweek that, while the incursion has led to a "shockwave of panic" within Russia's southeastern regions, what Ukraine has so far captured "is not a significant amount of territory, nor is it particularly valuable."

Matthew Savill, director of Military Sciences at RUSI, previously told Newsweek that Ukraine committing forces to the operation could also drag soldiers away from the home front, potentially diminishing their defensive capabilities.

The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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