Iran is preparing a missile attack against Israel, according to a senior White House official.
Heightened tensions in the region spiked further after Israel said it had launched a limited operation into southern Lebanon on Tuesday to target Iranian-backed Hezbollah, with continued Israeli airstrikes on Beirut.
There has been anticipation over response by the Islamic Republic, which is the main sponsor of Hezbollah, to the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah last week. There was earlier targeting of the group through attacks on its electronic devices. Newsweek has contacted the Iranian Foreign Ministry for comment.
What We Know
An unnamed White House official said that Iran was preparing to launch a ballistic missile toward Israel.
CNN was among the American media outlets that reported on Tuesday that Washington had been made aware of a plan by Tehran to "imminently launch" the missile.
"We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack," the source said, adding that any direct military attack from Tehran against Israel "will carry severe consequences for Iran."
Iran warned it would avenge Israel's bombardment of Lebanon and the killing of Hezbollah's leadership, including the death of Nasrallah, which delivered the biggest blow to the group. It has a significant impact for Iran's influence in the region, given its role as Hezbollah's main backer.
Nasrallah was trained in Iran, and his group obtained an arsenal of long-range missiles, rockets and other weaponry thanks to the Islamic state, outstripping the capabilities of the Lebanese armed forces.
What We Don't Know
There are few details about Iran's plot. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters on Tuesday that, after being informed by the U.S., "at this moment we don't identify an aerial threat from Iran."
"The U.S. informed us that Iran is preparing to fire directly on Israel," Hagari said, asking the public to be "responsible and vigilant." An unnamed senior Israeli official told ABC News that any attack by Iran on Israel will prompt a severe response.
However, there are questions about Iran's capabilities in targeting Israel and Hamidreza Azizi, research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) think tank in Berlin, said that Tehran has a lack of options to confront Israel.
Missiles Iran launched in April in response to an attack on its consulate in Syrian capital Damascus blamed on Israel were easily intercepted. Furthermore, there has been no decisive move to avenge the July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, also blamed on Israel.
For Tehran, "the main logic was to show a response that would be enough of a deterrent and at the same time not trigger a war," Azizi told Newsweek, "something like a sub threshold military activity."
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the global political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, posted on X, formerly Twitter, that Iran's leadership "looks terribly weak right now" because doing nothing is a green light for further Israeli attacks, but any escalation risks bringing the U.S. into the war.
"Any imminent retaliation against Israel likely to be extremely limited," Bremmer wrote.
Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent for The Economist, posted on X: "to say that it would be an enormously risky gamble for Iran to carry out a ballistic-missile strike against Israel at a moment when its main deterrent against Israel has been decapitated would be... an understatement."
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