A new Ukrainian-developed ballistic missile has passed flight tests, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, as Kyiv ramps up investment in its domestic weapons production more than two-and-a-half years into the war with Moscow.
"Our new ballistic missile has successfully passed flight tests," the Ukrainian leader said during an appearance at a defense industry conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.
Ukraine relies on Western aid deliveries to keep its missile arsenal stocked but has heavily invested in its homegrown weapons production and defense industry as its grueling war against Russia has continued.
The U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which tracks daily changes and developments in Ukraine, said on Wednesday that Kyiv's push to beef up its domestic production of military equipment and weapons will help ease its dependence on its Western backers in the long-term, but the war-torn country will still need "considerable Western assistance for the next several years."
Zelensky said in late August that Ukraine had tested a domestically-produced ballistic missile, describing the results as "positive." He declined to provide further details.
Ukraine has a variety of ballistic missiles, excluding Western-provided equipment like the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, noted Jacob Parakilas, research leader for Defense Strategy, Policy and Capabilities at the European branch of the RAND think tank.
Kyiv is not permitted to use long-range Western weapons like ATACMS against Russian targets over the border. Ukraine has appealed against this restriction, but despite signaling from officials last month, it remains in place. Domestically-made ballistic missiles would not fall under this ban.
Ukraine has prewar stocks of missiles like the short-range tactical Tochka-U, which is of some—but limited—use to Kyiv, Parakilas told Newsweek. Kyiv has converted some older air defense missiles into land-attack ballistic missiles, Parakilas said, but these are "not as effective as purpose-built ballistic missiles."
"As with the Tochkas, there's a limited and declining supply of such weapons available, so they're a stopgap measure at best," Parakilas added.
Zelensky's remarks this week likely refer to the Hrim-2, a missile long in development though to have an estimated range of around 500 kilometers, or just over 300 miles, Parakilas said.
This is "not enough to hit Moscow," Parakilas said, but it is a long enough range to threaten key Russian sites like air bases, ammunition storage sites or other military facilities from Ukrainian territory.
As well as having an exemption from conditions enforced by the U.S. and other allies, ballistic missiles are also harder for Russian air defenses to intercept than cruise missiles or drones, Parakilas noted. Ground launchers for the Hrim-2 could also "be kept hidden almost anywhere when not in use, driven to their launch points under cover of darkness, and moved quickly again after launch," Parakilas said.
"How much of an impact they'll have on the war depends on how quickly and prolifically they can be produced, as well as how reliable and accurate they are – and none of those questions are possible to answer with any reliability just yet," Parakilas said.
Kyiv has also cultivated its domestically-produced Neptune antiship cruise missile development program. Neptune missiles are credited with sinking the Russian Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022, and attacking a Russian port in the Kerch Strait that links mainland Russia to the annexed Crimean Peninsula.
"Everyone can see how effective our 'Neptune' missiles are," Zelensky said on Tuesday.
Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, teased further announcements on Ukrainian-made missiles in the coming months, saying on Wednesday that by the end of 2024 or the early stages of 2025, "you will hear a lot about a major missile program."
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said earlier this week that domestic weapons production had tripled in 2023 and then doubled in the first eight months of 2024.
The Ukrainian government will set aside an additional $7 billion in next year's state budget to buy weapons and other military equipment, Shmyhal said. This is an increase of around 65 percent, he added.
In the first six months of this year, Ukraine produced 25 times more artillery and mortar ammunition compared to the output for the whole of 2022, Zelensky said on Tuesday. Kyiv is able to produce up to 20 new howitzers, referred to as Bohdana systems, each month, the Ukrainian leader said.
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